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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Final Sprint

So I realize I have been remiss in my political commentary. As more events happen the more there is to comment about and it just piles up. I'll come right out and say it. Barack Obama will win the presidency. I will be shocked if McCain can pull this one out. Obviously the economy ruins the chances of any Republicans, but in addition to that I really think McCain has run a poor campaign which is shocking considering how he turned it around for the Republican primaries. About the only thing that could save McCain is if our economy suddenly turns around in the next two weeks -- but by then it still might be too late with the droves of people doing early voting.

Campaign Strategy
Piss poor. McCain's campaign managers should be ashamed. Maybe it is McCain's directions, but I doubt that given his Republican primary campaign. Maybe its also a fault of the media since the early part of the campaign was run in McCain's traditional way but got zero media coverage because of the fawning over Obama. But really, once the campaign started focusing more on issues, getting back to basics would have done wonders. How hard is it to say, "You talk the big talk, but have you done anything to back it up? I've been talking the talk and backing it up for the past 20 years!" What happened to his change argument that flowed through his RNC speech? You know, the message that gave him the huge bounce in the first place? Change we can trust? Ring a bell? Instead of focusing so much on Obama and trying to prove he was the wrong person, McCain should have focused on why he was the right person to lead. If he had wanted to focus on a character flaw, he shoudl have kept pressing the celebrity attack. That was the only attack that seemed to actually get under Obama's skin, as well as resonate with the populace. Or if you wanted to talk about character, what about the whole saying one thing to one voter, and something different to another? And why not play up the fact that you co-sponsored the bill to increase regulation of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac? That to me would have been huge about judgement, considering how much Obama was making that an issue. Continue to bring up your judgement about Iraq and the surge, and what is needed to be finished in Afghanistan. And about the economy your supposed weakness -- acknowledging it would have been better than trying to show you were an expert. You don't have to be the expert. If you could have brought in experts that you would have made part of your cabinet and inner circle, and talk about their ideas and proposals, it would have made a tremendous difference. You do have some people who have been quite successful in business campaigning for you in the past (Romney, Whitman, Fiorina), having them take more of a forefront would have benefitted you greatly. And of course, making it a point to ask where the money would come from for Obama's proposals with the current economic crisis. And finally, make it a big issue about campaign finance reform. The very fact that Obama has ludicrous amounts to spend does make it into a major campaign problem. Sure the public finance system needs to be reformed. But completely opting out and raising funds in the manner Obama has done leads down a slippery slope. I have heard some mention of this, but the sheer magnitude of this should be brought up as an issue. A promise reneged, increased possibilities of becoming beholden to special interests, and of course the funny business of small donors with nonexistent names would have resonated with the voters.

Face to Face Presidential Debate
Finally McCain comes out with a good performance. Too bad Obama's was still better. Split screen does neither of them any favors, although Obama was better if only because he did the same thing each time which was chuckle/snicker. Both did some question dogding, with Obama's most egregious being about the tone of the campaign. Seriously McCain, nobody cares about Ayers and bringing it up out of the blue does nothing for your credibility.

Town Hall Presidential Debate
A very poor performance in his preferred medium. Shocking really, but I guess when the audience is only 1/3rd your supporters it is hard to make jokes and feel at ease.

Sarah Palin effect
I wrote about the Palin effect last time and wondering if it would last. Quite
obviously, it didn't. Whatever sort of advantage there was to her being on the ticket has been completely mitigated. She just isn't capable yet of being able to handle questions on the fly, save for Iraq/Afghanistan. And I wonder how much fault the McCain campaign has in this, because it seems like they are trying to protect her while showing her off. That just can't work. Palin needed more time to bone up on all the major issues instead of hitting the campaign trail so furiously. Her SNL appearance was great, but it only goes to reinforce that she is a likeable person but does nothing for her policy making abilities.

Vice Presidential Debate
Regarding the VP debate, I think Biden won that but it wasn't a beatdown. And really, what Biden did was genious by making everybody talk about McCain. Palin did do some blatent question dodging although to be fair, on at least one of those she dodged the question because she was directly refuting Biden. Which brings me to an infuriating point that I did not seem to see anyone mention -- Biden would have dodged a couple questions in the same manner except he didn't even allow the moderator to ask the question. Palin would finish a response, which then should have gone to the moderator to ask a new question. Instead, Biden jumped in immediately by stating, "Can I make a response to this statement" then pause a half second before getting into his response. Another point that I want to make is that while Palin stuck to her talking points, there was one rebuttal that was notable. Biden had just talked about how the Afghanistan commander had said the troop surge would not work. Palin laid the smackdown on Biden forcing him to retract the statement. If you listen to Palin's rebuttal, there was no talking point, no trepidation, just an immediate well nuanced answer. I would imagine she is well read on Iraq/Afghanistan because her son is going to Iraq, which is probably why she was able to answer in that way. Nobody knows if she could be like that on other topics, but at least based on her Iraq/Afghanistan answers I have some hope.

Best of luck to whomever ends up winning. If history repeats itself from the S&L crisis, we are in for a 3-4 year recovery. If either candidate was really smart, they would concede the race now ;)

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2 Comments:

Blogger "" said...

This post has been removed by the author.

November 7, 2008 11:15 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cute

November 7, 2008 11:16 PM

 

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